McKean County Weather on FaceBook
NOAA and NWS Products for the US

Select NOAA-NWS Forecast Office Text Products

(Product availability varies with seasons, forecast office, and weather.)

Forecast Discussion for State College, PA

To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List

County Warning Area MAP
Select Forecast Office:   Select Product:  
000
FXUS61 KCTP 200516
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
116 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
----Dangerous heat and humidity expected through Sunday---

We will be dealing with hazy, hot and very humid conditions
until early next week when some relief is in sight. Dangerous
heat will build Today into Saturday and continue into Sunday.
Heat indices will peak on Saturday afternoon, easily exceeding
100 over southern and especially southeastern areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Storms continue to fire along the western edge of cold pool,
which is currently west of the WC and NW Mountains. Cooler and
more stable air resides across central and north central PA late
this evening with dissipating showers...remnants from earlier
evening deep convection. Keeping slgt chc/chc shra/tsra going
through the early morning hours across much of central and
northern PA, with highest POPs over the west closer to the
deeper convection over far west and northwest PA.

Other than this, all is well on track after minor near term
tweaks in POPs. The overnight will be very warm and muggy, to
say the least.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Heat concerns last into Sunday. Saturday should be the hottest
day. But...

There is a real concern for the temps to get as high as curr
fcsts, and therefore, the heat indicies. There is the
possibility of the convective debris/blow-off coming from
upstream on Sat AM to keep the temps down. It is also really
tough to get those 77-79 dewpoints. But, we have hit those
values on Thurs and getting close today (Fri). Will continue all
flags as is with nowhere near enough support to drop/downgrade
any of the flags. PoPs again stay mainly to the north. Warm
temps aloft should limit deep convection and ice production.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*Heat indexes in from 100 to 110 SE half Sunday afternoon.
*Excessive heat advisories and warnings through the eastern
 portion of central PA into Sunday.

The biggest change has been in the pattern for Sunday. The
front continues to slow and looks to not move through until
Sunday evening. The upper trough coupled with the low level
frontal boundary pushing into the surface heat dome will kick
off convection Sunday aft that looks to linger into Monday.
Highs will reach the mid to upper 90s in the SE, with upper 80s
to lower 90s in the NW where clouds will be thicker and
convection more prevalent. But abnormally high dewpoints will
keep the heat oppressive, with heat indexes reaching excessive
heat warning criteria again Sunday in the SE.

As the front drops down across the region Monday, a cool down
is expected. Along with it a break in the oppressive humidity as
the mean upper level trough is nearby. Monday could still be
muggy over the SE where scattered tstms will continue, but
overall trend will be that temperatures of 10-20F above normal
over the weekend will retreat back to near July normals during
the work week with a mainly dry week in store.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Not a lot of change for the 06Z TAF package.

Main thing was to add some groups.

Still several areas of showers and storms from northwest PA,
northwest across Lake Erie, to the upper Great Lakes area.

Overall think these areas will slowly weaken, given that the
dewpoints and temperatures inland from the Lakes not all that
high, compared to the MDT area. The southeast is too warm aloft
for anything prior to late aft.

For now, only have VCSH in BFD.

Earlier discussion below.

Fair weather and light wind is expected over most of central Pa
overnight associated with a ridge of high pressure. In those
portions of northern Pa that received rain this evening, patchy
fog is possible late tonight. High level cloud debris from
thunderstorms over the Grt Lks may limit radiational cooling and
fog potential for a while, but expect an increasing chance
toward dawn Saturday. Model soundings also indicate the
possibility for a period of low mvfr cigs over the Laurel
Highlands (KJST) Saturday morning, resulting from a moist,
upsloping west flow.

Any morning low cigs or fog should lift by late morning, with
widespread VFR conditions a near certainty later today. An
isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorm can`t be ruled out, but
the odds are too low to mention in the forecast at this point.

.Outlook...

Sun...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Scattered PM tsra impacts
possible.

Mon...Widespread showers and tsra impacts possible.

Tue-Wed...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ028-
036-046-049>053-056>058-063>065.
Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
PAZ028-036-046-049>053-056>058-063>065.
Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this
evening for PAZ019-025>027-034-035-045.
Heat Advisory until noon EDT today for PAZ019-025>027-034-035-
045.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for PAZ059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Martin

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS State College, PA (CTP) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

San Juan, PRHonolulu, HI Lake Charles, LA Pueblo, CO Corpus Christi, TX St. Louis, MO Reno, NV Raleigh, NC  Newport/Morehead City, NC Dodge City, KS Houston/Galveston, TX San Joaquin Valley/Hanford, CA Louisville, KY Fort Worth, TX Pittsburgh, PA Austin/San Antonio, TX Sacramento, CA Jackson, MS Phoenix, AZ Northern Indiana, IN Flagstaff, AZ Tallahassee, FL Springfield, MO Riverton, WY Blacksburg, VA Sioux Falls, SD El Paso Area, NM Columbia, SC Wilmington, NC Greenville-Spartanburg, SC Eureka, CA Midland/Odessa, TX Tucson, AZ Goodland, KS Huntsville, AL Amarillo, TX Norman, OK Lubbock, TX Marquette, MI Little Rock, AR Pendleton, OR Missoula, MT Binghamton, NY Boston, MA Green Bay, WI Billings, MT Baltimore/Washington San Diego, CA Tampa Bay, FL Morristown, TN Twin Cities, MN Brownsville, TX Portland, OR Des Moines, IA Memphis, TN Pocatello, ID San Angelo, TX Jacksonville, FL Aberdeen, SD Quad Cities, IA/IL Charleston, SC New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA Peachtree City, GA Shreveport, LA Grand Rapids, MI Medford, OR Albany, NY Wichita, KS Gray/Portland, ME Spokane, WA Boise, ID Denver/Boulder, CO Great Falls, MT Caribou, ME Key West, FL Miami-South Florida, FL New York City/Upton, NY Melbourne, FL Hastings, NE Paducah, KY Glasgow, MT Bismarck, ND Charleston WV Omaha/Valley, NE Buffalo, NY Jackson, KY Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO Gaylord, MI Cheyenne, WY Grand Forks, ND Detroit/Pontiac, MI Central Illinois, IL Burlington, VT Salt Lake City, UT Topeka, KS Nashville, TN Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI Albuquerque, NM Las Vegas, NV Wakefield, VA La Crosse, WI Birmingham, AL Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA Chicago, IL Seattle, WA Rapid City, SD Indianapolis, IN Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA Mobile/Pensacola State College, PA Cleveland, OH Elko, NV Wilmington, OH Grand Junction, CO North Platte, NE Tulsa, OK San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA Duluth, MN Anchorage, AK Fairbanks, AK Juneau, AK Tiyan, GU

Products Courtesy of NOAA-NWS
NWS Information Parsing Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO and Products Scripts by SE Lincoln Weather.
Mapping by Curly at Michiana Weather and by Tom at My Mishawaka Weather.