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Forecast Discussion for State College, PA

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414
FXUS61 KCTP 222316
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
616 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of high pressure will drift east across the state
with fair weather for tonight and Saturday morning. A wave of
low pressure will lift northeast from the Tennessee Valley
bringing periods of rain, and possibly some mixed precipitation
over the Northern Mountains of Pennsylvania Saturday night and
early Sunday.

The storm will exit toward the Southern New England Coast
on Sunday with precipitation diminishing across PA to just a
few flurries or patchy drizzle across the higher terrain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows cold front about to clear
southeastern PA. Associated rain shield has just about cleared
as well. Breezy northwest winds and cooler temps in the wake of
the front will persist into late afternoon...though strongest
gusts should have completed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A compact area of high pressure will slide east from the Ohio
Valley and be over Southern PA/Nrn VA late tonight and Sat
morning with fair weather and diminishing wind.

Sky cover should become scattered for much of the night which
should aid in the amount of radiational cooling. Expect min
temps Sat morning to be mainly in the low-mid 20s, except upper
20s across the southern tier and throughout the Lower Susq
Valley.

The timing of thickening cloud cover Saturday will play a role
in precip type. Per SPC HREFV2 hourly PTYPE, some pockets of
freezing rain will be possible (mainly on the ridge tops) as
the llvls of the atmos wet bulb to near freezing within the
first few hours after the onset of the anticipated light,
stratiform rain.

00Z/06Z Model consensus however, points toward a mid to late
afternoon onset of the light rain across the Sw half of the CWA,
and a strat to the light precip mainly after dusk Saturday
across the NE zones.

Max temps Sat will vary from the upper 30s to low 40s north, to
the mid 40s in the Lower Susq Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Precipitation will continue to overspread CPA from southwest to
northeast Saturday evening into Saturday night. Light to
moderate rain amounts (0.25-0.50 inches) are expected across
south central PA Saturday night with the highest totals over the
far southeast zones. Rainfall totals taper down to the
north and west with 

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS State College, PA (CTP) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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