014
FXUS61 KCTP 220743
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
343 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Lowered today`s temps a few degrees in the east and lowered
  Thursday`s dewpoints slightly from NBM based on pattern and
  collaboration.
* Upped PoPs for Sat (vs previous fcst) due to increased
  confidence.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Much warmer today and even warmer Thursday and Friday.
Numerous light showers this morning, many more on Friday.

2) Wet start to the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Much warmer today and even warmer Thursday and
Friday. Numerous light showers this morning, many more on
Friday.

A warm front over the state this morning will be followed by the
parent low pressure area as it drops southward. The low won`t
drop all the way through Central PA until late in the day. The
numerous, but light and disorganized showers will continue into
mid-morning as they move southward. The precip is progged to
dry up and may not amount to more than a sprinkle for folks S of
US Route 22 - other than the Laurel Highlands where it should
rain up to a quarter of an inch. Some clearing will try to
happen late morning/afternoon as the thickest clouds slide to
the south. Clouds could hang tough in the east, and have nudged
temps down a few degs in the Poconos and E of Lebanon and
Lancaster. Just enough forcing will remain and afternoon
instability and a weak enhancement to orographic forcing could
touch off isolated SHRA near and just N of State College and
Williamsport, which would drift SE if they do form. The wind
becomes northerly this evening after the low and it`s attendant
cold front (more like a dry line) pass. This should dry it out
again.

Thursday looks dry and much warmer, jumping about 10F over
today. Everyone but the far NErn mtns will be in the 70s. An
80F is not out of the question close to the MD border. This
warmth and associated deep mixing should help dewpoints/RHs get
a little lower than NBM guidance. Min RH should be close to 30
pct if not lower Thurs. NAM is an outlier with much higher
dewpoints and cloud cover and slightly cooler temps in the west.
Have discounted for now. The front that passes through late
today/early tonight will return northward over western PA on
Friday.

            ------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Wet start to the weekend.

The lift over the front and daytime instability will generate
sct SHRA/TSRA in the western half of the CWA on Friday. The
cold air tries to hang on over the east and may even back in a
bit as the upper low over New England presses southward along
the coast. This will keep the warm front in place or nudge it to
the west as a backdoor cold front. The energy diving down from
the N/NW and perhaps an enhanced LLJet will bring in more
moisture, and generate more SHRA/TSRA Fri night. Sat looks
pretty wet for everyone with numerous SHRA/TSRA. QPF in the
0.5-1.00" range is a solid forecast for many Fri night and Sat.
Some model divergence is seen for Sunday, though. Confidence is
low in how fast the precip moves through. So, Sunday may hold
sct SHRA, and PoPs in the 20-35% range are being kept for the
time being.

Next storm system approaches for Tues, resulting in a medium
confidence and medium to high PoPs. Will leave those high PoPs
in for now, but model/EPS difference exists on evolution of the
storm/mass fields.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Timing of flight restrictions has continued to be delayed due
to dry antecedent air mass (T/Td spreads around 10 degrees C)
ahead of showers associated with low pressure moving across the
Great Lakes. The HRRR/RAP models were favored for timing of
boundary layer saturation over other guidance (e.g. NAM/NAM3km)
as its recent runs have been more representative with timing of
lowering ceilings at KBFD. A period of IFR at KBFD remains
possible (40-50% chance) between 13Z-16Z, though the likelihood
& timing of IFR will be better resolved as the low clouds on
model guidance materialize over the next 6 hours. On the other
hand, while the HRRR was used for timing of initial MVFR, I
favored a HRRR/NAM blend at KJST where westerly upslope flow may
result in MVFR stratocumulus between 13Z-18Z Wednesday.
Likelihood of MVFR ceilings decreases with south & east extent,
remaining borderline (20% chance) for our central terminals
(KUNV/KIPT) with the HRRR trending drier, then unlikely (