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Forecast Discussion for State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 191203
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
803 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will assure fair weather through mid week. A
frontal system and potential coastal low will bring inclement
weather Wednesday night into Friday. High pressure will return
for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Skies are mainly clear across the region. Light winds have
allowed temperatures to drop back into the teens and 20s.

High pressure will build across the forecast area leading to a
bright day over all but the far north, where a mix of sun and
clouds will develop as a weak disturbance ripples through
southern NY.

Highs will moderate slightly reaching the mid to upper 30s
north, ranging to near 50 along the MD border.

Fair skies and light winds will lead to seasonably chilly
overnight with lows generally in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
The surface high will move off the coast Wednesday. The
southerly flow will help push temperatures into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. This will be close or slightly above normal.

Clouds will be on the increase for the latter part of the
afternoon ahead of the next approaching frontal system.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A potent upper shortwave will drive a front through the Gr Lakes
Wednesday night and Thursday. This will increase the chances for
some rain by Thursday morning with periods of rain likely during
the day.

At least a couple of complicating factors to consider going
forward:

First is the potential for some snow over the NW early Thursday
where we will start the day near or even below freezing. High
temps will rebound into the 40s over the north so no sig
accumulation is expected.

Second and potentially more important, the latest NAM and ECMWF
develop a potent low along the Mid Atlantic coast taking aim at
the SERN portion of the CWA with a significant QPF event. The
NAM generates a widespread 2 to 3.5" of rain (snow?) with 1+
inches of QPF in the EC. The NAM even generates some heavy snow
on the WRN edge of the precip shield in the marginally cold
airmass. The ECMWF and ECENS have less rain and are not nearly
as aggressive with the snow. At this stage I chose to use a
blend of model POPs and downplayed the snow/QPF potential.

A secondary cold front will cross the area Friday which will
bring a reinforcing shot of colder air along with some late
season mountain snow showers.

High pressure will build in for the weekend with warmer days
and cool nights. Temps will be remain below normal Friday and
Saturday, but will warm significantly Sunday climbing into the
60s many areas through central PA and across the south. Warmer
trend looks to last into the 8-14 day period.

Spring officially begins at 5:58PM on Wednesday 3/20.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure building into the region will bring widespread
VFR conditions and light winds Today.

.Outlook...

Wed...Chance of light snow NW Mtns toward midnight.

Thu...AM light rain/snow/low cigs possible N and W Mtns.

Fri...Becoming windy. AM low cigs/snow showers possible N and W
Mtns.

Sat...Gusty NW wind possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Ceru

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS State College, PA (CTP) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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