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Forecast Discussion for State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 210734
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
334 AM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off to the west and a developing coastal low will
create a number of periods of rain and thunder over the next
week. Clouds and rain will move into the eastern half of the
state today, with only a low chance for a shower over the
western mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Multiple layers of clouds are already spreading across the CWA.
The closest low clouds are still in nrn VA. While there are a
few ticks here and there on the radar, none of that would be
reaching the ground just yet. Precip associated with the coastal
low is not really consolidated into a compact area of
rain/thunder like it should be when it gets to SErn PA.

We are keeping the forecast highly consistent and still expect
a 9-18 hour period of moderate and occasionally heavy rain with
embedded thunder. This area may entirely skirt the western mtns,
and make a cool, but halfway decent day for that slice of the
region. As the clouds thicken and lower this morning, the temps
will stabilize, with little movement expected. Thus, our early
morning temps could be or at least be within a deg or two of
the eventual maxes for the day.

Most model guidance is very certain that it will rain over our
eastern third to half. Thus, we bumped PoPs to 100pct. Precip
by the end of the day could be as much as an inch and a half
over the far SE, but barely a few hundreths west of I-99.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Persistence forecast. The only tweaks that were made were to
refine the coverage area of the heaviest rainfall and to nudge
the values up to a total of around 2 inches in the eastern
zones. While this may seem like a lot of rain, the flash flood
guidance is well above those numbers for even 6 hours, and this
should take longer than that to accumulate. The coastal low
should pass S-N over eastern PA. It looks to move steadily along
this path. Will check out the newest WPC excessive rain
guidance closely later tonight. The track is going to be a key
for getting it unstable and making any deep convection. With the
FFG as high as it is, we shouldn`t see any flash flooding, but
anytime you get 2 inches of rain in less than a day, there will
be some brief small stream problems. At this point a flash flood
watch does not look necessary.

The heaviest rain should stay to the east of UNV and perhaps
even east of the main stem Susq (IPT/MDT). There should be a
6-12 hour break in rainfall on Sunday morning. But, the big
upper low continues to sit off to our west and continues to
direct deep/tropical moisture over the region. However, there
are not really coherent, easily trackable short waves to focus
our attention on any one period vs another. It does look like a
significant-enough wave should enhance the lift over the east
once again to make light to moderate rain later Sun. But, this
won`t be anything like today/tonight and probably not enough to
cause any additional water worries. It is the middle of summer
with everything growing well, soaking up whatever it can.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The very gradually-filling inverted low will edge toward
western PA while continuing to channeling tropical-like moisture
into the region - keeping unsettled weather ongoing through
much of next week - peaking in the afternoons. Best daily
chances for tstorms shifts to western/central sections Tue/Wed
before returning eastward Thu as a cold frontal boundary finally
pushes across the state.

Temperatures will be below normal Sun with thicker cloud cover
and moist SE/E flow, then highs return closer to normal for
next week while lows look to remain on the muggy side.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions across the region overnight will deteriorate
from the south as moisture begins to stream into the area in
response to the coastal low moving northward.

Clouds will continue to lower during the day, as scattered
showers become more numerous, and eventually transition into a
steadier rain across the east. Rain could be heavy at times
across the eastern airspace, and could also see some embedded
thunder at times, especially after 18z.

Flying conditions will vary greatly across the region today,
with northwestern areas remaining mainly VFR. Contrasted to
this will be eastern areas which will drop into the MVFR range
by later morning, and IFR by afternoon.

As the low center moves past the area, expect a windshift to
the north and then northwest late in the TAF period across KLNS
and KMDT. This will likely shift the character of the
precipitation from a steadier rain back to showers. This same
shift, although slower and more subtle, will occur at other
airfields across central Pennsylvania too, but likely occur
just at the end, or slightly after the end, of the TAF period.

Unsettled weather with showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected to continue into mid week in response to an upper low
slowly lifting across the area.

.Outlook...

Sun-Wed...Frequent showers/isolated T`storms with associated
MVFR/IFR restrictions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Jung

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS State College, PA (CTP) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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