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Forecast Discussion for State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 231027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
627 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

An upper level trough will remain over the region through the
upcoming weekend, then lift out by early next week as ridging
builds in from the Great Lakes. A dying cold front is likely to
approach from the northwest by the middle of next week.


Satellite imagery at 0830Z showing some patchy lake effect
stratocu across the northwest mountains, which should tend to
diminish toward dawn as inversion height falls. Potent shortwave,
over Lk Huron early this morning, will track southeast across
Pa later today, likely supporting scattered, diurnally-driven
snow showers or flurries, mainly over the northern and western
mountains. Ensemble mean 850mb temps of around -8C should
translate to max temps ranging from the low 30s over the
highest terrain of the Alleghenies, to the low 40s over the Susq


Expect crumbling cu as the sun sets this evening and the
boundary layer stabilizes. Surface ridging will build into the
region Saturday, providing central Pa with fair and cool weather.
Early sunshine will give way to scattered afternoon cumulus,
especially over the northeast part of the forecast area, closest
to upper low and pool of cold air aloft over New England. Mixing
down model 850mb temps support highs ranging from the mid 30s
over the northern mountains and Laurels, to the low 40s over the
Susq Valley.


Model guidance continues to indicate cool and dry weather Sunday,
as central Pa remains in region of large scale subsidence and
dry northwest flow just west of upper trough axis. Precipitation
associated with lee cyclone developing in the Plains and
streaking east through the mid MS/TN Valleys is forecast to
remain well south of the area.

By early next week, model guidance shows upper level ridging
building into the region, supporting a high confidence forecast
of fair weather and moderating temperatures. NAEFS and ECENS
support a chance of rain showers the second half of next week
associated with a dying cold front working in from the Grt Lks.


Just enough low-level moisture in NW flow to generate an area
of lake effect stratocu over parts over the northern mountains
(BFD) and extending into parts of the central mountains
(FIG/UNV) early this morning. These should diminish by mid
morning as inversion height falls.

Potent shortwave, showing up nicely on the water vapor imagery
over Lake Huron early this morning, will track southeast across
PA later today, likely supporting scattered, diurnally-driven
snow showers or flurries along with restrictions, mainly over
the northern and western mountains. The southeast half of CWA
will remain VFR. Northwest winds will pick up to 10-15 mph by
midday, with some gusts to 20-25 mph.

In wake of shortwave tonight, period of ceiling restrictions
likely over northern and western higher terrain. Surface
ridging will build into the region Saturday. Scattered cumulus
will develop for the afternoon, especially over the northeast
part of the forecast area closest to pool of cold air aloft.


Sat-Tue...No sig wx expected.




NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS State College, PA (CTP) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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