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Forecast Discussion for State College, PA

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799
FXUS61 KCTP 212354
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
754 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A line of severe thunderstorms capable of strong to potentially
damaging wind gusts are likely to impact northwest and north
central Pennsylvania into early tonight. A refreshingly cooler
and less humid airmass will kick- off the fall season on
Saturday with dry weather persisting in most areas through the
remainder of weekend. Periods of rain are likely to return
Monday night into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SVR TSTM Watch #387 continues until 03Z Sat for our NW mtn zones
where latest hourly Mesoanalysis shows between 500-100 j/kg of
ML cape superimposed on an area of enhanced 0-1KM SR helicity
above 200 m2/s2 between KBFD...KDUJ...KFIG...KELM. Best LLVL
helicity is near the PA/NY border where values are near 450
m2/s2.

The line of strong to locally severe TSRA will have a quickly
narrowing target of opportunity to produce localized wind damage
as it nears a KMRB to KUNV and KELM line within the next 2-3
hours. East of this line, llvl easterly flow and very stable air
will quickly weaken the depth of the convection and potential
to mix wind down to the sfc.

Latest HRRR quickly weakens the initial/prefrontal line of TSRA,
but shows a secondary line of likely showers (with perhaps a
low-topped TSRA) across the NW mtns with the actual CFROPA
again after 02Z Sat.

That second line dissipates into just some scattered showers
at best across the Lower Susq Valley between 06Z-09Z Sat.

Noticeably cooler and much drier air will overspread the area
from north to south late tonight. Expect temperatures around
daybreak Saturday to range from the upper 40s in the northern
tier to around 60 degrees in the lower Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Cooler, less humid air will arrive behind the front for the
upcoming weekend. The frontal boundary will stall just south of
the Mason-Dixon line, with fair weather persisting through
Saturday evening. Models hinting at moisture riding along the
Mason Dixon line Saturday night into Sunday, keeping light rain
going there for the second half of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Model consensus supports increasing forecast confidence in a
period of rain developing north to south Monday night into
Tuesday as the wavy frontal boundary lifts back to the north
aided by return flow around 1039 mb sfc high over Nova
Scotia. There is also growing confidence/certainty in rainfall
along a cold front crossing the Appalachians around mid week.
Following a dry period Thursday and early Friday a second cold
front looks possible later Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Added thunder to JST in the 00Z TAF package.

Expect storms to weaken once they move east of the higher
terrain, as the airmass is more stable to the east. Also
time of day and time of year.

Otherwise just a few minor changes to the TAF package.

Earlier discussion below.

Late afternoon update, minor adjustments.

Line of storms heading toward BFD, 40 knot gust at Erie, already
have this in the BFD TAF.

Low clds holding tight across the east, backed off on the low
clds lifting some, prior to any shower activity late.

More information below.

MVFR ceilings holding tough over the eastern 1/2 of the airspace
while VFR prevails across ZOB sector. Growing less optimistic
for improvement in the eastern airspace. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible through the late afternoon. Winds
will remain a bit gusty (15-25KT) especially across the western
airspace through the evening.

A relatively fast-moving line of gusty showers/storms will
accompany a cold front southeastward through the airspace late
this evening through tonight. The greatest risk for high wind
gusts exists over the northwest airspace and included TEMPO
group with 40KT gust at KBFD btwn 00-02Z. Low clouds should
move in behind the cold front late tonight with MVFR cigs a
good bet across the northwest 1/3 of the airspace into early
Saturday morning.

.Outlook...

Sun...AM fog north. Light rain possible near the PA/MD border.

Mon-Tue...Periods of rain spreading south to north.

Wed...Showers/thunderstorms likely.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Ross/DeVoir/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Gartner/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin/Steinbugl

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS State College, PA (CTP) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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