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Forecast Discussion for State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 211028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
528 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

The coldest air of the winter season so far will reside over
the region through Tuesday, and combine with gusty northwest
winds of 30 to 40 mph to produce dangerously low wind chills.
Temperatures will trend milder to near or slightly above normal
for Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next approaching frontal
system. Another shot of bitter cold will move into the area by
the end of the week into next weekend.


Deep upper level low tracking across northern New York this
morning will help to align winds in a deep layer from the NW as
it moves to the New England states today.

Frequent wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph and bitterly cold air will
lead to dangerously low wind chills through today and into early

Short upstream fetch, low dewpoints and short residence time
over the Glakes will bring just a few narrow LES bands across
primarily the Laurels and to a lesser degree over the NW Mtns.
This will lead to some light, wind-whipped accumulations of up
to an inch across the ridges in those parts of the CWA.

Wind Chill readings will be between -15F and -25F over the
forecast area early today (but won`t relax much at all today),
with the lowest readings occurring over the northern mountains.

Between the dry arctic air and short over-lake trajectories, we
expect little more than scattered light snow showers/flurries
with little or no accumulation.

For most places today, expect bright sunshine but frigid temps
over Central Pa.

NBM/Superblend indicates high temps ranging from the single
digits up north to mid and upper teens over the Lower Susq


High pressure builds in and becomes centered over the state
by daybreak Tuesday. This will lead to a mainly clear and frigid
night with diminishing wind and the fresh snowpack...leading to
the coldest temps of the winter so far. Low temps Tuesday
morning will vary from close -10F across the perennial cold
spots up north, to the low to mid single digits in the Lower
Susq Valley.

As the ridge of high pres at the surface and aloft drifts east
of the region Tuesday mid level warm advection Alto Cu clouds
will quickly spread in signaling the approach of the next bout
of wintry weather for very late Tuesday night or more likely
early Wednesday morning.

Temperatures will trend milder through midweek. High temps
Tuesday afternoon will be near to slightly below normals for
late January.


Focus for precip through midweek will be a trailing cold front
from initial Great Lakes low pressure, and then a strengthening
wave developing along the southern part of the front and
tracking northward up the Mid Atlantic/New England coast. There
is still uncertainty in strength/timing/track of the frontal
wave but currently there is potential for at least some wintry
weather to the north/west of the low track.

Another shot of arctic air should arrive by the end of the week
with some lake effect snow showers. The GFS is faster vs. ECMWF
with the next system into the weekend.


Expect periods of IFR vis at KBFD/KJST in lake-effect/upslope
snow showers this morning. VFR elsewhere under mainly clear
skies. 25-35kt wind gusts from 290-310 degrees will continue
through the afternoon before gradually subsiding into tonight.



Wed-Thu...SubVFR likely with mixed precip.

Fri...MVFR with scattered snow showers and gusty NW winds.


Wind Chill Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ004>006-
Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
Wind Chill Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ024-


NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Gartner/Steinbugl

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS State College, PA (CTP) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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